Which player is poised to claim the Golden Boot in the Premier League?

Erling Haaland (Manchester City), 21 goals

Haaland dominated the Premier League golden boot race last season with an impressive tally of 36 goals in his debut campaign in England. While surpassing this record seems unlikely, his current count of 21 goals positions him as the frontrunner for this season’s title, marking a remarkable achievement for any striker in the league.

With four games remaining against Wolves, Fulham, Tottenham, and West Ham, Haaland has ample opportunities to add to his goal tally. Despite dealing with a recent muscle issue, his return to form, evidenced by a goal against Nottingham Forest, suggests he is primed to make a strong finish to the season. With the second-highest number of shots in the league and a significant proportion of touches inside the box, Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess remains unmatched, making him the player to watch in the race for the golden boot.

Cole Palmer (Chelsea), 20 goals

Palmer’s impact at Chelsea this season has been nothing short of remarkable, showcasing his talent and versatility on the field. Despite his previous stint at Manchester City, his performance at Chelsea has turned heads and garnered widespread attention. Surpassing expectations, he has nearly matched the goal-scoring pace of his former teammate Haaland, a feat made even more impressive considering this is Palmer’s first season as a regular starter at this level.

While Palmer’s goal tally has been boosted by penalties, his overall contribution cannot be overlooked. Although his non-penalty goals per 90 minutes rank lower than some players, his flawless record from the spot highlights his reliability in crucial moments. Moreover, his impressive accuracy in shots on target sets him apart from many peers in the league. With Chelsea still having five games remaining in the season, Palmer has ample opportunities to further solidify his position in the race for the golden boot and potentially achieve a remarkable feat.

Alexander Isak (Newcastle), 19 goals

If Isak maintains his current trajectory since joining Newcastle, he’s destined for superstardom. The 24-year-old has hit his stride in recent months, netting nine goals in his last eight Premier League appearances and positioning himself as a contender for the golden boot.

Isak’s efficiency and reliability in front of goal set him apart from his peers. With a remarkable shot conversion rate of 28.8%, he boasts one of the best records in the league this season. Despite fewer attempts compared to some players, his clinical finishing has yielded impressive results, with 19 goals from just 66 shots in 26 matches. His scoring rate of 0.88 goals per 90 minutes and high non-penalty expected goals (xG) further underscore his prowess in front of goal.

Despite Newcastle’s inconsistent form, their attacking threat has been evident, particularly in recent weeks. With a knack for creating opportunities, Isak ranks among the top players in terms of big chances per 90 minutes, second only to Haaland. With upcoming fixtures against teams vulnerable to conceding goals, Isak’s exceptional form couldn’t have come at a better time for Newcastle.

Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), 19 goals

Could Ollie Watkins clinch both the golden boot and the player of the season award? While Phil Foden’s performance, especially if Manchester City secures the title, could challenge the latter, Watkins remains a strong contender for both accolades. Under Unai Emery’s guidance, the England forward has reached new heights, emerging as one of the league’s standout players and showing remarkable improvement.

With 31 goal involvements, Watkins stands out as the first English player, aside from Harry Kane, to achieve 30 or more in a Premier League season since Jamie Vardy’s stellar contribution to Leicester’s title win in 2015-16. He’s on the brink of becoming the first Aston Villa player to score 20 goals in a Premier League season since Peter Withe in 1981.

Watkins’ exceptional goal involvements highlight his seamless partnership with teammates Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby in Villa’s dynamic attack. Impressively, none of his 19 goals have come from penalties, showcasing his prowess in open play. Additionally, Watkins’ off-ball runs into the box are frequently targeted by his teammates, reflecting their trust in him. With a non-penalty expected goals (xG) of 16.04, Watkins has exceeded expectations by 2.96, underscoring his lethal finishing ability.

Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth), 18 goals

Solanke has achieved a remarkable feat by setting a new record for the most goals scored by a Bournemouth player in a top-flight season, surpassing Joshua King’s previous total of 16. Under the management of Andoni Iraola, Bournemouth has quietly enjoyed a successful season, even ascending into the top half of the table following their impressive 3-0 victory over Brighton at the weekend. Since their 6-1 defeat by Manchester City at the start of November, they have accumulated 42 points in the Premier League, a tally surpassed only by the champions, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Villa during that period.

Despite not finding the net against Brighton, Solanke has proven to be a consistent performer for Bournemouth, amassing 16 non-penalty goals this season, a feat bettered only by Watkins (19) and Haaland (17). His enduring presence on the field is evidenced by his 3,120 minutes of league play, ranking him fifth among outfield players. With aspirations of earning a spot in the England squad for Euro 2024, Solanke faces stiff competition, yet his commendable performance throughout the season highlights his potential to compete at the highest level, possibly attracting attention from top clubs.

Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), 17 goals

While there’s a prevailing notion that Salah isn’t enjoying a stellar season, he remains a contender for the golden boot. With 17 goals to his name, he has outperformed his peers by creating more significant scoring opportunities than any other player in the league. However, Liverpool’s inefficiency in converting chances is apparent, as evidenced by their staggering 715 shots this season, a significant margin ahead of second-placed Manchester City with 621 attempts.

Comparatively, Salah has demonstrated a sharper eye for goal than his teammates. Despite Núñez’s chaos-inducing presence, he has scored 11 goals from 105 shots, whereas Salah has netted 17 from just 100 attempts. Furthermore, Salah’s assertive presence in the opposition’s box is evident, averaging 9.1 touches per game, a figure notably higher than his competitors. While his expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes trail behind a few others, including Haaland and Isak, Salah’s actual goal output slightly falls short of his xG, suggesting room for optimization in his finishing.