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Australia news live: petrol forecast to reach up to $2.15 a litre; Dutton blames Labor for defence cost blowout | Australia news

Petrol forecast to reach up to $2.15 a litre with return of excise tax

Petrol prices could hit $2.15 a litre in coming weeks as capital cities return to the top of their fuel cycles and the return of an excise tax kicks in, AAP reports.

Australia’s east coast cities are approaching the bottom of their fuel cycles, which means petrol prices are about to hit a floor before heading back up again.

The average retail price slid 0.7 cents last week, according to Australian Institute of Petroleum data.

The national weekly average across the major capital cities fell by 2.9c, to 183.2c a litre.

But wholesale prices have ticked upward to $1.70 a litre, up more than 13c from the week before.

Oil prices lifted sharply last week after petrol exporting countries decided to cut production in a bid to keep oil prices high as higher interest rates continue to cool demand.

CommSec economist Craig James said the end of fuel cycles and the return of the fuel excise tax – which shaved around 22c a litre at the pump – could see petrol reach $2.15 a litre in coming weeks.

But the ready reckoner is that a ‘fair’ price for fuel is around $1.90 – with the wholesale price near $1.71 a litre and the gross retail margin for retailers near 15-20 cents a litre.

James also said higher fuel prices would flow through to higher inflation, which would keep pressure on the central bank to keep hiking rates.

Key events

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A police operation is underway at a shopping centre on Bonnyrigg Avenue, Bonnyrigg.

The public is advised to avoid the area.

— NSW Police Force (@nswpolice) October 10, 2022

The Victorian election cannot come soon enough.

Regulator withdraws charges of unlawful betting ads against Tom Waterhouse’s company

Bookmaker Tom Waterhouse’s company is “pleased” after claims by NSW’s gaming regulator of illegal betting ads were dropped, AAP reports.

Liquor and Gaming NSW on Monday withdrew 14 charges of unlawful publishing of a gambling advertisement laid against Tom Waterhouse Punting in 2020 and 2021. The matter had been scheduled to progress to a contested court hearing on Monday.

“Issues relating to evidence to be presented to the court led to the prosecutor advising that the charges should be withdrawn due to the unlikelihood of a successful prosecution,” a Liquor and Gaming NSW spokesperson said. The authority has not detailed the original allegations previously.

“Tom Waterhouse Punting Pty Ltd doesn’t wish to provide any comment other than they are pleased with the outcome,” Richard Keegan, a lawyer for the company, said.

WATCH & ACT – RIVERINE FLOOD – AVOID THE FLOODED AREA

Location: Loddon River, Loddon Weir to Kerang.

More details at https://t.co/RP7QseKkhB

MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM AT LODDON WEIR.

MINOR FLOODING OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF LAANECOORIE RESRVOIR AND APPIN SOUTH. pic.twitter.com/o6amK3UGVJ

— VicEmergency (@vicemergency) October 10, 2022

Peter Hannam

Snags in the government’s carbon emissions move

As mentioned in an earlier post, the federal climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, released draft legislation today for consultation about changing the so-called safeguard mechanism supposed to cap and reduce carbon emissions from industrial plants.

The “so-called” is apt because the mechanism, introduced by the Abbott government, didn’t really safeguard much at all because the limits were never lowered to nudge polluters to pollute less.

Anyway, the government wants the legislation to “reward industrial facilities that stay below their emissions baselines, and give other facilities a new, low-cost way of reducing net emissions”, so it said today.

New safeguard mechanism credits will be generated, allowing those with cheaper abatement (ie carbon reduction) able to sell their advantage to those with more costly or limited options. (Therein lies a carbon price, you’d have to expect.)

Bowen said in a statement:

It’s vital the reforms under way are efficient for Australian industry, and this draft legislation helps to do just that.

However, there are a couple of snags, as ever with climate policy.

Among them is why it’s necessary to create a new type of credit before the government knows the extent of the problems with existing carbon credits. Former chief scientist Ian Chubb’s independent review is looking into such matters right now, and won’t be due to report back until 31 December (and it’s not clear when the government will respond).

The Australian Institute, which put out a recent submission on the changes, notes the government isn’t expected to release the draft rules on how the legislation will apply until next month. That makes it hard to assess what MP should vote on.

Alia Armistead, one of the AI’s researchers, says:

They’re changing the high-level architecture that governs all of these things. We don’t know how this new architecture is actually going to be used … It’s a trust issue.

To mangle Ronald Reagan’s comments about Soviets and missile treaties: “Trust, but verify.” (Apparently it sounds better in Russian because it rhymes: Doveryai, no proveryai.)

Peter Hannam

Peter Hannam

Demand for grid power reaches record low in south-west WA

As noted in an earlier post, Alinta Energy’s boss, Jeff Dimery, has speculated that households may see bumps of as much as 35% in their power prices next year.

That would vary, depending on a few factors, including the state you reside in. New weekly numbers on wholesale electricity prices released by the ASX show there’s been a recent spike in futures for Victoria and NSW in particular (with a 10% or higher increase in the past week).

Not a very good week for wholesale electricity prices, with year-end numbers jumping in some states of the NEM. (No wonder there’s chatter about 35% rises to come next year for some consumers – assuming Alinta’s Jeff Dimery is right.) pic.twitter.com/xqsS2h0ZNZ

— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) October 10, 2022

Prices are supposed to come down in future years, or at least that’s what the market is presently betting on.

Meanwhile, a piece of history from the weekend from WA, with demand for grid power in the state’s south-west (ie Perth and surrounds) reaching a record low thanks mostly to all those rooftop panels generating away.

Mild and sunny conditions on Saturday saw WA’s minimum operational demand record drop 35 MW from the previous (12/09/22) to 707 MW at 12:30pm. At the time, estimated rooftop solar was providing 71% of underlying demand. #Springtrend 🌻 pic.twitter.com/cMRSttJSaB

— AEMO (@AEMO_Energy) October 10, 2022

WA’s energy minister, Bill Johnston, tells us record low demand is often possible now each April and October, when there’s still sunshine aplenty but a shrinking need for cooling.

And each year, another 200 megawatts of solar or more go up on people’s roofs, squeezing demand for grid power even more – or at least until new demand arrives, particularly on four wheels (ie electric vehicles).

Kate Thwaites says much work needed on gender equality in parliament

Labor MP Kate Thwaites, who was a Labor staffer when former prime minister Julia Gillard made her misogyny speech in parliament 10 years ago, tells ABC’s Afternoon Briefing that the Labor party has far more women in parliament now, and how parliament operates is changing, but there is a lot of work to do to achieve gender equality.

I want to see us get a more fair and equal paid parental leave scheme that encourages men to take up [and] makes it easier for women to take the leave that they need.

So there is much more that we can still be doing to make sure that women, particularly in the workplace, feel supported and equal. The work has begun and I think it is important that we do mark just how important that speech was in our country and how for so many younger women, I know they bring it up to me as something that they saw and it really, really spoke to them.

Kate Thwaites sitting in parliament
Labor’s Kate Thwaites wants ‘a more fair and equal paid parental leave scheme’. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Broadbent has doubts on tax cuts surviving longer term

Russell Broadbent, who has previously called for the government to axe the stage three tax cuts, says he believes the tax cuts might survive the October budget but he is not sure they’ll survive the budget next May.

The Liberal MP says people like him do not need $9,000 in tax cuts:

By the time Jim Chalmers has found out what the state of the world is and where our nation is in that mix, I think there will be a different approach to be made in May.

Economically things have changed, and when these propositions were put to the Australian people it was accepted by Labor and Liberal and everybody else – well, the Greens may not have – but we actually put them to a parliament at a completely different time when we were looking at surpluses.

Things have changed so dramatically now, not only on the economic front and not only on the debt front and I can keep going. Covid has had an enormous effect in terms of decisions to be made about the shortages and other supply-chain issues. It is a different world … and you have to deal with the issues you face today.

‘A disgrace’: Broadbent decries Canberra’s handling of defence projects

Liberal MP Russell Broadbent has admitted government handling of defence contracts has been “a disgrace” but says the issues date back to the 1990s.

The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, earlier blamed the former Coalition government for 28 defence projects that were running at an accumulated total of 97 years overtime under the Coalition – to a shortfall of $6.5bn.

On ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, Broadbent said the statements made today could have been made in any year of his 21 years in parliament, and it was always an issue.

These defence contracts take so long in the making and the delivery, they tend to cross one or two or three governments … many of the issues we deal with now, like the Collins-class submarines, that was an issue back in the 1990s.

So, yes, we have not handled this well and yes it is a disgrace, yes there is accountability needed to be put in place.

Russell Broadbent in parliament
Russell Broadbent in parliament. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Warning against driving through floods

Watt says communities experiencing flooding or at risk of it should not attempt to drive through flood water, noting that the SES had a large number of rescues of people who drove through flood water.

He says the NSW state government and the federal government are working well together.

We are doing as much as we can to get some support out the door as quickly as possible for people. There have been lots of good pre-deployment of resources this time around, particularly by the NSW government, and … defence force helicopters [are] available as well. So I want people to know that we are standing with them and we really understand that this is a huge amount for people to deal with yet again.

Minister gives NSW flooding update

The federal emergency management minister, Murray Watt, is on ABC’s Afternoon Briefing providing an update on the wild weather on the east coast.

He says there has been a bit of a reprieve in rainfall but there is so much water in the system that there is still significant flooding in western NSW, central NSW and the Hawkesbury.

He says there could be more heaving rainfall and flooding this week in south-west NSW, central Victoria and parts of Tasmania.

Watt says:

That shows you that the weather conditions we are dealing with a very widespread … The Bureau of Meteorology has just today released its latest weather forecast for the summer period and on top of all of this flooding we are also looking at a relatively high number of cyclones, potential bushfires and grass fires [in] parts of the country, so we are looking at a perfect storm when it comes to weather events this coming summer.

Daniel Hurst

Daniel Hurst

A push to reform the Australian government’s war powers has been dealt a blow, with the deputy prime minister telling an inquiry he is “firmly” against giving parliament the power to veto deployments.

Residents sue Victorian government over public housing Covid lockdowns

A trial has been listed for a group suing the Victorian government over its controversial decision to lock down nine public housing towers, AAP reports

More than 3,000 residents were forced to stay inside the North Melbourne and Flemington buildings in July 2020.

The immediate Covid-19 lockdown was announced at a 4pm press conference on 4 July, with many of the residents unaware of the order until police arrived outside.

The group are suing the state of Victoria for compensation in the Victorian supreme court, claiming the state government subjected them to 14 days of false imprisonment.

The plaintiffs also claim they had inadequate access to food, medicine, information and assistance.

The parties held a case management hearing before supreme court justice John Dixon on Monday.

The case has been listed for an estimated 20-day trial in September next year.

About 30 witnesses expected to be called to give evidence.

A further case management hearing will take place at the Victorian supreme court in January.

Police outside a locked down housing block in North Melbourne in July 2020
Police outside a locked down housing block in North Melbourne in July 2020. Photograph: Speed Media/Rex/Shutterstock

Petrol forecast to reach up to $2.15 a litre with return of excise tax

Petrol prices could hit $2.15 a litre in coming weeks as capital cities return to the top of their fuel cycles and the return of an excise tax kicks in, AAP reports.

Australia’s east coast cities are approaching the bottom of their fuel cycles, which means petrol prices are about to hit a floor before heading back up again.

The average retail price slid 0.7 cents last week, according to Australian Institute of Petroleum data.

The national weekly average across the major capital cities fell by 2.9c, to 183.2c a litre.

But wholesale prices have ticked upward to $1.70 a litre, up more than 13c from the week before.

Oil prices lifted sharply last week after petrol exporting countries decided to cut production in a bid to keep oil prices high as higher interest rates continue to cool demand.

CommSec economist Craig James said the end of fuel cycles and the return of the fuel excise tax – which shaved around 22c a litre at the pump – could see petrol reach $2.15 a litre in coming weeks.

But the ready reckoner is that a ‘fair’ price for fuel is around $1.90 – with the wholesale price near $1.71 a litre and the gross retail margin for retailers near 15-20 cents a litre.

James also said higher fuel prices would flow through to higher inflation, which would keep pressure on the central bank to keep hiking rates.



https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2022/oct/10/australia-news-live-updates-nsw-qld-victoria-rain-weather-floods-economy-defence-albanese-dutton Australia news live: petrol forecast to reach up to $2.15 a litre; Dutton blames Labor for defence cost blowout | Australia news

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