Warnings about the dangers of war in the Taiwan Strait have reached enthusiasm. Admiral Philip Davidson, then commander of the US military in the Pacific, told US Senator in March that the threat of China’s attack on Taiwan “will appear in the last decade, in fact, in the next six years.” Economists described Taiwan as “the most dangerous place on earth” last week.
It’s time to take a step back and ponder the fact that much of the anxiety stems from a misunderstanding of a document by the Chinese Communist Party.
According to the Pentagon, the main reason behind Davidson’s predictions is that the Chinese Communist Party has discussed a new interim goal to develop the PLA in 2027. The Pentagon calls this a “new interim milestone in PLA modernization” and claims it is an “eight-year acceleration from 2035.”
Here are some things that need to be clarified. First, it is a mistake to say that Beijing has changed its medium- to long-term goals for military development. At the end of the high-level meeting last October, the Communist Party said, “We want to ensure that the 100-year military facility goal is achieved by 2027.”
The South China Morning Post speculated from its communiqué that the party convention required “building a completely modern army by 2027.” This is the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding. However, achieving full military modernization is a goal set by party leaders in 2035, aiming to transform the PLA into a “world-class” army by 2049.
“Some say that the goal of modernization in 2035 has been moved to 2027, which is simply not correct,” said Meia Nouwens, a Chinese military modernization expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. She believes the misunderstanding was caused by the party’s statement in the same paragraph about the need to “accelerate progress towards military modernization.” This is the stock language found in almost every Communist Party document on PLA.
Taylor Fravel, a PLA expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, noted the fact that party documents issued since the advent of the 2027 goal continued to refer to the 2035 and 2049 goals. Indicates that the two have not changed.
In addition, experts disagree with the notion that Beijing is increasingly panicked by U.S. military officials that it is confident in its military strength enough to risk an attack on Taiwan.
“I’m sure they can pump out modern ships,” Nouwens said. “But the operation is much more complicated,” she added, noting that there remains a major challenge in getting the various PLA branches to work together using network technology.
According to the analysts, to start a war (the United States that there is a high possibility that attract its allies), or China’s leader Xi Jinping is cornered, need to know without a doubt that there is no risk to lose in the war is there.
None of this is to downplay China’s growing military power, or the pressure it puts on Taiwan by using it. Chinese military aircraft are now flying into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone almost every day, and their flights are increasing both in frequency and range.
However, these moves are likely not a step towards war, but part of a campaign that threatens Taiwan with so-called gray zone tactics. The constant fear of the risks of the Taiwan War only falls into the hands of such a Chinese strategy.
Some security experts warn U.S. Indo-Pacific forces about increased war risk, secure budget funds to support U.S. military presence in the region, and influence Biden’s China policy review I consider it an attempt.
“This is a defense-led assessment in the United States and is based on their needs rather than a careful analysis of the PLA,” said Bonnie Glazer, a veteran Chinese expert at the US German Marshall Foundation. “They really put a disadvantage on America’s national interest.”
The United States is misleading in China’s assessment of Taiwan’s threat
Source link The United States is misleading in China’s assessment of Taiwan’s threat