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The state school population is expected to decline by one million

The number of state school pupils is set to decline by nearly one million over the next decade, according to new screenings from the Department of Education (DfE).

Currently standing at 7,859,000, the population is projected to shrink to 6,915,000 in 2032.

The decrease of 944,000 represents a decline of 12%, significantly more than the figure predicted just a year ago.

“The difference is mainly due to significantly lower birth projections in mid-2020 [Office for National Statistics] national population projections, used for the first time in this series of pupil projections, which are the main drivers of the student population, ”said the DfE.

The population attending primary and nursery schools peaked in 2019 and has been declining ever since. While this is mainly due to the continued reduction in the number of births since 2013, the largest decline in 2021 is probably explained in part by the pandemic (parents may have opted for home schooling of their child rather than sending him to the host class. for example) .


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The new data predict that the decline is set to continue, with a reduction in the total primary state population of nearly 17% – from 4,571,211 to 3,810,464 – over the next decade.

Government data reveals that the decline in school-age children is already having an impact, with more than two-thirds of municipal areas having to plan for an increase in surplus places by 2024.

This is the year the secondary school population is expected to peak (at 3,230,015) before following a similar downward trajectory and falling to 2,950,857 in 2032.

The new data points to an uncertain future for many workers in the sector, with the number of surplus places per population amplified by a period that saw the construction of hundreds of new schools.

The capacities of state schools are already being reduced, with empty classrooms reformulated as units for pupils with special educational needs or disabilities.

The state school population is expected to decline by one million

Source link The state school population is expected to decline by one million

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