MAGGE OF THE PAGAN: The British dilemma of Emanuel Macron

If the polls are correct, Emmanuel Macron will be the first head of state to return to the presidency of the Fifth Republic in two decades after tomorrow’s vote in France in the second round of elections.

After the first round of biting nails, the latest Ipsos poll suggests that between Macron and his rival Marine Le Pen a clear blue sky opened at the end of their election campaign last night. Ipsos received 57.5% of the vote, and Le Pen – 42.5%.

Despite this, Macron’s victory will not be so sweet. Last time he won with a big 64 percent against 34 percent in Le Pen.

Looking ahead: if Emanuel Macron wins, he will have to be more careful in the future – both at home and abroad

This is not surprising. He became like a food warmer. Either you love him or you hate him, and his five years in power have repulsed many voters from the keen taste of his policies.

The president made many mistakes. His green policies have exacerbated the rural poor because of rising diesel costs and now the cost of living, opening the door to far-right Le Pen supporters and far-left Jean-Luc Melanchans, who finished third in the first round.

Although the French economy recovered to pre-pandemic levels and unemployment was the lowest in a decade, it was in vain. Debt rose to 360 percent of GDP. Much of this – about 600 billion euros – was raised during the pandemic through various support programs as well as the introduction of the vaccine.

On the other hand, the president may have cost many his health by his careless talk of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which he called “quasi-useless.”

It was the strangest intervention, but the French have a complicated history of distrust of the vaccine.

As Lucy Ward points out in her wonderful new book, The Empress and the English Doctor: How Catherine the Great Defeated the Deadly Virus, the story of how Dr. Thomas Dimsdale pioneered the smallpox vaccine across Europe, the French establishment has always been wary of vaccines. which led to the death of Louis XV from smallpox.

If he wins tomorrow, Macron will have to be more careful in the future, both at home and abroad.

Known as the president of the rich, he will have to do more to bridge the inequality between urban and rural areas, as well as the gap between young and old.

One of his first tests will be whether he will dare to continue his controversial policy of raising the official retirement age, a measure that has already provoked strikes and will lead to new clashes with unions over public sector reform.

What would Macron’s victory mean for Britain? Since Brexit he has been behaving towards Britain like a spoiled teenager.

He threatened to cut off power grids in the UK, pushed French fishermen to block Jersey, is a major EU supporter seizing clearing operations from the City, attracted foreign investors to Paris with juicy tax breaks and failed to help migrants on the canal.

However, if Jupiter, as he was called by the detractors, remained in the Elysee Palace, it was preferable to move to Le Pen.

Winning in the second innings can even give Macron the confidence that he will be a little better to his neighbors on the water. But hopefully not more militant.

Life on Mars

Now that Ilona Maska has the funding, it’s clear he’s deadly serious about his $ 47 billion bet on Twitter. Why don’t investors still take it seriously?

If they were, the share price of the social media giant would be higher, of course, closer to its offer of $ 54.20 per share.

However, Twitter shares are only up to $ 49. Don’t investors believe it will stretch if it succeeds? Or do they think that if Twitter introduces a poison pill to dilute Mask – and any other shareholders – it will repel him?

Twitter could also do corporate gymnastics on its own, such as finding another bidder. But there is a problem. Twitter doesn’t make money – in fact, it loses a lot of buckets.

Who but the richest man in the world would want to risk so much to lose so much? Just like Musk. Remember, the reason Musk organized his Space X mission to colonize Mars was so that humans could be saved in the event of World War III or their capture of AI.

Musk has repeatedly challenged skeptics before and could do so again, especially if he makes a tender offer directly to shareholders. Watching what could be the biggest hostile takeover bid ever played out is sure to win life on Mars.

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MAGGE OF THE PAGAN: The British dilemma of Emanuel Macron

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