This week’s local elections are expected to split further as Labor plans to win in English cities but struggle to advance in former industrial centers.
Experts say he is playing “two choices”, predicting that large urban areas may take place Work: Consumption Compression և: partygate: scandal; but: Conservatives are more likely to be retained in cities, especially in the North Midlands, despite national titles.
Sky News has visited Wandsworth in south-west London, which has been held by the Conservatives for 44 years but which could make a historic transition to the Labor Party in Nuniton, Warwickshire, where a Tory council was hit by a landslide last year. voters.
About 40% of the council seats contested this week are in London, which will be the main test of Labor support under Sir Kir Starmer and how much the recent events have damaged the government.
The ruling Conservatives in Wandsworth, who have 33 councilors and 26 Labor, one independent, campaign as “local conservatives” and focus on council taxes.
The district is known for having one of the lowest average council taxes in the country – the only local government to reduce it this year.
Conservative Partner’s polling expert Lord Hayward told Sky News that the Labor transition would have an impact on both major national parties.
“The competition there is partisan, against the low tax of the Council of Elders,” he said.
“The loss of Wandsworth will affect the morale of the losing party outside London; it will affect the leadership of either party.”
If the Tories can not keep it in their message about low taxes և effective services. Labor can not win when they are ahead in the national elections. The message to the leadership will be tough.
Conservatives also face challenges in London’s Barnett and Westminster districts, but Wandsworth is considered to be the closest.
While Labor says they do not expect to take Wandsworth this time around, they did get more votes there than the Conservatives did when they last ran for office in 2018, but with fewer advisers.
“Heat or eat”
The cost of living on site was a key issue. Sky News visited a new baby bank set up by the charity Little Village, which provides needy new parents with essentials such as clothes, beds and a car.
They expect to help the more than 7,000 children who have applied to them this year, up from 6,000 last year as living standards plummet affect many local families.
Volunteer Alice Duncan says many families were looking for warm snowflakes for their babies to wear at home because they could not afford to keep the heating on.
“What I’m noticing is that most of the targets are working people, maybe part-time, but even though they work, they find that they can not make ends meet,” he said.
Speaking to nearby Clafem shoppers, Leslie, who works at the kindergarten, said she saw that “many families have chosen what to spend their money on, heating or eating.”
Shakira, a programmer with a very young son, was angry with the partygate ու had a message for the Prime Minister. “And I can not even get obstetric services, I can not access anything.”
Last week, a YouGov poll found Labor 27 points ahead of the Tories with a projected 50% stake; For the Conservatives – 23%, for the Liberal Democrats – 12%, for the Greens – 9%.
But it will not turn into the great achievements needed to win a general election if they are concentrated in cities and university cities. Studies over the past few years have shown the alienation of traditional Labor voting in cities.
This local election will be a test of whether other areas that have recently turned to the Conservatives remain stable despite Boris Johnson’s difficulties.
Rearrangement of the policy
Will Jennings, a professor of political science at the University of Southampton, says Nuniton is a classic example of the Brexit-accelerated policy reshuffle in North Warwickshire that Labor is now battling in other areas.
“We can wait for two elections,” he said. “In the older, more pro-Brexit, socially conservative cities, to some extent against the national wave, the government can stay in more places than expected. Labor is likely to win in big cities, but they risk accumulating votes there. incomes are falling. ”
The council of Newton և Bedworth Borough, on the southern edge of the so-called “red wall”, has been under Labor control for most of the last five decades.
However, the Conservatives came to power last year, winning 10 Labor seats. They now have 25 of the six Labor advisers.
Council Chairman Chris Wilson said the party gate was marked as a turning point by only two voters, while others supported the prime minister. Mr. Wilson, whose grandfather was a miner in one of the county’s many farms, gives an idea of the city’s changing allegiance.
“He would have turned into his grave if he had known that I was a Tory, he does not mind being the leader of the council,” he said.
Mr Wilson took over as leader in 2014, when the Conservatives had three advisers.
“Circumstances have changed significantly in a relatively short period of time,” he said.
The Conservatives are trumpeting the major renovation of the city center, where empty shops will be replaced by a new hotel, business center and cafes.
It was given the green light in 2018 before taking control of them, but attracted 50 50 million in new funding from three central government “leveling” schemes.
Labor council member Chris Watkins, whose party hopes for modest gains, has seen a generational change.
“It’s hard to turn my head. “That we have so many deprived areas in this district … but we have become a real blue.”
Local elections 2022: Growing split in England is projected as cities may pass to Labor, while Tories are likely to retain in cities | UK news
Source Local elections 2022: Growing split in England is projected as cities may pass to Labor, while Tories are likely to retain in cities | UK news