Western experts are urging China to be more transparent about a virus outbreak, thought to be caused by human metapneumovirus (HMPV), which is overwhelming hospitals and raising concerns about similar patterns to the 2019 coronavirus outbreak. HMPV typically causes cold-like symptoms, but severe cases can lead to respiratory complications. Although infections are rising in the U.S., expert assessments suggest it resembles a bad flu season rather than a global crisis. The need for better data and genomic studies is emphasized for vaccine development, while Chinese officials claim the severity of the outbreak is lower than in previous years.
Western experts have publicly called on China to be more transparent about the virus outbreak that is overwhelming hospitals, as data shows the virus is spreading in the United States.
The Chinese government has not yet commented on videos posted on social media of overcrowded waiting rooms and hospital wards, as well as reports of crematoriums and funeral parlours overflowing with bodies.
The outbreak in China is thought to be caused by human metapneumovirus (HPMV), a relatively unknown virus that typically causes cold-like symptoms such as nasal congestion, headache, tremors, and fatigue. There is.
Dr Sanjaya Senanayake, an infectious disease expert at the Australian National University, said it was “critical for China to share data on this outbreak in a timely manner”, including “data on who is infected”. Ta.
He added: “We will also need genomic data to confirm that HMPV is the culprit and that there are no significant mutations of concern.” Such genomic data can also serve as guidelines for vaccine development. ”
China’s silence has led some to worry that there are similarities between the current situation and the 2019 coronavirus outbreak, which the Chinese government initially downplayed.
Their warning comes as the number of HMPV infections in the United States is also on the rise, with test positivity doubling from early to late December.
According to the latest data from the CDC, just under 300 positive test results were reported in the last week of December, the latest numbers available.
Above is an excerpt from a video posted online that claims to show hospitals in China being overwhelmed.
The CDC graph above shows the increase in the number of positive HMPV tests at the end of December 2024
HMPV first appeared in 2001 and usually causes cold symptoms.
However, more severe symptoms can occur, such as bronchitis, bronchiolitis, and pneumonia, in which patients experience shortness of breath, severe coughing, and wheezing.
Children, the elderly, and immunocompromised patients are most at risk for serious complications.
The virus usually causes mild symptoms, so the exact mortality rate is unknown. But experts estimate that 10 to 30 percent of patients hospitalized with HMPV in the United States die.
Dr. Senanayake warned that the rise in HMPV infections in China is similar to a “bad flu season” in the United States and is unlikely to develop into a global problem.
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“At this stage, China is likely to have a bad season for HMPV, just as there are years when influenza is overwhelmingly prevalent,” he said.
“This could be due to a combination of viral and behavioral factors, but it should subside.”
Vasso Apostolopoulos, a professor of immunology at Australia’s RMIT University, said the rapid rise in cases and increasing pressure on health systems in densely populated areas like China points to the need for further surveillance. Ta.
“Ensuring effective surveillance and timely response will be key to reducing the public health risks from this outbreak,” he said.
China’s CDC has urged people to take precautions such as washing their hands, but has pushed back against claims that hospitals will be overwhelmed.
“Respiratory infections tend to peak in winter,” said Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“Compared to previous years, the severity of the disease appears to be lower and the scale of the spread to be smaller.”
Like the coronavirus, HMPV is spread through respiratory droplets that circulate through the air when a person coughs or sneezes. Close personal contact, such as shaking hands or touching contaminated surfaces, can also spread the disease.
Researchers estimate that 1 in 10 respiratory illnesses in children in the United States is caused by HMPV.
According to the CDC, fever, cough, nasal congestion, and shortness of breath are the most common symptoms.
The CDC estimates that 20,000 children under 5 years of age are hospitalized with HMPV each year in the United States.
There is no vaccine or specific treatment for this disease.
Professor John Tregoning, an expert in vaccine immunology at Imperial College London, said: “HMPV (human metapneumovirus) is not a new virus, first isolated in 2001, but has probably been circulating for much longer than that. It is highly likely that they did.”
“It has very similar symptoms (at least in children) to RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which is part of the cocktail of winter viruses that we are exposed to.
“As with other respiratory viruses, symptoms and severity vary; risk factors include age (very young or very old) and underlying immunosuppression.
“Like other viruses, it is transmitted by coughing, sneezing and droplets. Protecting yourself by having good ventilation, covering your mouth when coughing and washing your hands can all help.
“It has the same symptoms as influenza, sars-cov-2 and respiratory syncytial virus, so the same advice applies to those affected: rest, stay hydrated and avoid infecting others. ”
The CDC graph above shows the HMPV test positivity rate from August 2023 to June 2024. Test positivity rates appear to be decreasing from this time last year.
Above is a clip of a video that claims to show a hospital in China being overwhelmed.
Experts warn that HMPV, which causes flu-like symptoms, can remain in the body for several days and can be easily passed on to others.
Professor Jill Kerr, a virologist at Australia’s Flinders University School of Medicine and Public Health, warned that the current outbreak in China is unlikely to cause a global crisis.
“This is very different from the COVID-19 pandemic, as this virus is completely new to humans, arose from infection in animals, and there was no prior exposure or protective immunity in the community,” he said. “It has spread to pandemic levels.”
“The scientific community also has some understanding of the genetic diversity and epidemiology of HPMV, the types of effects the virus has on the lungs, and established clinical testing methods, but this also means that new lung diseases are emerging. It’s very different from the COVID-19 pandemic that occurred.” There was little information about how the virus changes and spreads, and there were no early diagnostic tests. ”
Andrew Easton, a professor of virology at the University of Warwick in the UK, told Live Science: “HMPV has been recognized as a significant problem for at-risk populations around the world since the early 20th century when it was first discovered.
“That risk has not changed significantly over the past nearly 25 years.”
According to the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS), a CDC database, HMPV cases in the United States are increasing compared to this time last year.
The test positivity rate is 1.9 percent, according to data for the week of Dec. 28, the latest available. Of the approximately 13,800 total tests conducted that week, just under 300 people were confirmed to be infected.
The test positivity rate for the week ending Nov. 30 was 0.9, half that of the following month.
And at this time last year, the CDC recorded a test positivity rate of 1.2 percent.
However, Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia in the UK, said it would be difficult to detect a year-on-year increase because HMPV is detected by molecular tests such as the PCR test used to detect the new coronavirus. He said there is a possibility.
“One of the problems with these types of infectious diseases is that they are being diagnosed more frequently as we move to molecular diagnostic panels, so the year-over-year increase may not be due to an actual increase,” he said. “It’s not always easy to know whether the number of deaths is increasing, or whether it’s just increasing.” Because we are diagnosing more infections.
He noted that the UK, like the US, has seen a “significant increase in recent weeks” but that the number of infections is about the same as this time last year.
“Overall, I don’t think there are any signs of a more serious global problem right now,” he said.
“I think we’re even more wary of an outbreak now,” said Dr. Jacqueline Stevens, a senior lecturer in public health at Flinders University in Australia.
“Everyone is hyper-vigilant, and when you hear the word human metapneumovirus, it sounds kind of scary.”