Covid’s prevalence fell by 60% in March, but researchers warn of a “flat” decline

The prevalence of coronavirus in the United Kingdom has dropped by about 60% since last month, with an average of 1 in 500 people still carrying the virus in March.

A recent React study that monitors the spread of the virus in the community suggests that March saw a significant drop in southeastern and London compared to the previous month.

However, researchers suggest that the latest figures suggest that prevalence declines may be “flat,” while “permanent areas of higher prevalence” are in South Yorkshire. He said it remains part of East Midland and northwest.

Stephen Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics Imperial College London, States as follows. “The good news is that the prevalence has dropped by about 60% from the previous round in February to the current March results.

“The latest data do not show a continuous and obvious decline, and the prevalence remains flat, which is reflected in the R estimate 1.

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“And there are some differences between infection and mortality patterns observed since January, which probably suggests that mass vaccination breaks some link between infection and mortality. I think you are doing it. “

To date, more than 1.5 million people have provided research swabs nationwide, and researchers can portray the spread of the virus throughout society.

A total of 140,844 swabs were collected in the latest round of evaluation from March 11th to 30th, with only 227 returning positive results.

Returns were down from the February 4-23 survey, when 689 positive cases were found in 165,456 swabs.

Researchers’ findings, which will be published as a preprint, were outlined in a briefing to journalists on Wednesday.

In addition, according to a survey, community infection rates were 0.2% in March, down from 0.49% in February to 1.57% in January.

And on average COVID For the overall prevalence in February and March, researchers observed that last month’s data showed that this had leveled off.

However, when comparing infectious diseases with deaths and hospitalizations, researchers have observed that “less deaths per infection” than expected based on the last few months of the study.

Professor Riley said:

“We believe this is a signal of how vaccination programs are breaking the previously strong link between patterns of infection and patterns of death and hospitalization.”

Professor Paul Elliott, Program Director of Imperial in the Faculty of Public Health, said:

He added that more work is needed to determine the effects of vaccines on prevalence and infection.

Professor Elliott admitted that the “significant decline” in infection rates had “flattened” in March, but that it did not rise due to recent relaxation of restrictions such as social mixing permits and reinstatements. Good news. ” Of students to school.

He said a “careful surveillance brief” was needed as a “careful balancing act” was needed and the blockade would be further relaxed.

Additional reporting by PA

Covid’s prevalence fell by 60% in March, but researchers warn of a “flat” decline

Source link Covid’s prevalence fell by 60% in March, but researchers warn of a “flat” decline

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