COVID-19: Can Delta Variants delay the final step of the PM roadmap? | UK News

After more than a year of coronavirus regulations of varying degrees, the Prime Minister will announce next week whether the last remaining restrictions on England will be lifted on June 21st.

Step 4 of the roadmap from the blockade includes removing social contact restrictions such as wearing masks and working from home, and opening nightclubs and large-scale events.

The government has outlined four data areas to consider when taking Each step of the roadmap -But the goals set by the Minister are ambiguous, so measuring whether a country meets relevant criteria is problematic.

As concerns continue Delta variant, Sky News will see what Boris Johnson, His cabinet, and science and medicine advisers are watching from now on Monday.

image:
Four stages of unlocking England

1. Risks from new “variant of concern”

Few people have Coronavirus I am supposed to be admitted to the hospital. The data show that on average 3 out of 100 infected people are hospitalized daily.

This is the lowest rate since the data became available since the end of last summer.

However, hospitalizations have begun to increase in recent weeks.

Case And Hospitalization After falling for months, it has been higher in the last few weeks.

The daily number of new cases has increased by 30% from 75 in mid-May to 100 in early June.

The increase in hospitalization began two weeks after the increase in cases. This was mainly due to the prevalence of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), which was first detected in India.

The increase is Northwest, Occupied 1 in 4 new hospitalizations in the last 2 weeks.

According to data from the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, the region has more than half of all delta cases sequenced in England.

Increasing cases and hospitalizations in the UK are not as fast as in September (the darkest shades). This is the beginning of the second wave, where a similar number of daily cases were recorded.

However, in the northwest, cases and hospitalizations are increasing faster than the national average, but the increase remains slower than in the beginning of last fall.

According to Public Health England, Delta (first detected in India) people are 2.5 times more likely to be hospitalized than Alfa (or Kent) people who were previously predominant in the UK. is.

There is also evidence that the delta is spreading faster than the alpha. Former government adviser Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, whose modeling has been influential in Whitehall since the beginning of the pandemic, suggested it was 60% contagious.

Delta (B.1.617.2) has become the predominant strain in the United Kingdom just over a month after it was first detected.And now it accounts for over 91% of new COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) The case in the UK.

This variant predominates in one-third of England’s municipalities. In the week leading up to May 29, more than half of the cases sequenced in 80 of the 244 regions were deltas.

2. Vaccines reduce hospitalization and mortality

Vaccines have proven to reduce hospitalization and mortality, but there is uncertainty about how effective they are against delta mutants.

According to PHE, B.1.617.2 reduces the effectiveness of jabs among those who have been vaccinated once, but it provides greater protection among those who have been fully vaccinated.

To date, two-thirds of people hospitalized with the delta mutant have not been vaccinated at all, according to figures released by the Minister of Health.

Of the 126 recently admitted, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 received a single dose, and only 3 took both, he said.

The data show that increased hospitalization is being driven by younger groups with lower vaccination rates.

Number of elderly people since mid-May 18 to 64 Hospitalizations are slowly increasing by 45% from 42 to 61 times a day.

Only 35% of this age group are fully vaccinated.

In contrast, almost everyone over the age of 80 receives two doses.

Admission fee Oldest and most vulnerable It keeps falling. The number has decreased by 40% from 11 people who are hospitalized daily in mid-May to 7 people in June.

Enrollment is increasing in younger groups with fewer people receiving two doses. However, the increase is slower than in September (the darkest line).

In areas with high numbers of delta variants, such as the northwest, daily hospitalizations are increasing rapidly in younger age groups than the national average.

3. Vaccine program continues “successfully”

Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi hopes that all of the top nine priority groups will be fully vaccinated by June 21st.

This includes everyone over the age of 50, healthcare professionals, and clinically vulnerable people.

As of June 6, 86% of people over the age of 50 had received two doses. However, vaccination rates vary from country to country.

Richmondshire, North Yorkshire, within the constituency of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is one of the areas with the lowest second-time vaccination rates outside London, alongside Eden and Slough. A second dose was given to three-quarters of people over the age of 50 in all three areas.

The 18 regions with the lowest second dose rates in the United Kingdom are in London, with just under two in three people over the age of 50 receiving a second jab in the Tower Hamlets and Camden boroughs.

The number of people vaccinated has increased exponentially in the last week. However, it is believed that it takes about two weeks from the injection until the vaccine is fully effective.

Experts say delays may be needed even if two doses are given to all people over the age of 50 by June 21st.

4. Infection rates do not put “unsustainable pressure” on the NHS

The final of the four tests that the government considers is whether there is a risk of a surge in hospitalization where infection rates put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Professor David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the government, said Sky News had “evidence that another wave was emerging.”

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“There is evidence of a third COVID wave.”

Researchers at the University of Warwick are part of a group whose members advise the government and predict that the reopening on June 21 will increase infections and therefore hospitalizations.

Their model also considered variants that were 40% more contagious than alpha and found that 6,000 hospitalizations per day could peak, assuming complete relaxation. If the variant is 50% more infectious, admission can reach up to 10,000 per day.

This assumed immunity, either by vaccination or by natural infection, is still retained.

Professor Ferguson said the vaccine reduced life-threatening risks in the third wave, but the future is still uncertain.

Professor Ferguson said: “When it comes to hospitalization, it’s quite possible that we’ll see at least another third wave of equality. I think we’ll probably have lower mortality. Vaccines are very protective.

“Still, that can be pretty worrisome, but there are a lot of uncertainties.”

The issue for the government is the timing of the delta variant.

Even some of their own scientific advisers claim that more time is needed to assess the effects of Delta and allow more adults to receive both vaccines.

The Data and Forensics Team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. Collect, analyze, and visualize data to tell a data-driven story. It combines traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite imagery, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while showing how journalism is done.

COVID-19: Can Delta Variants delay the final step of the PM roadmap? | UK News

Source COVID-19: Can Delta Variants delay the final step of the PM roadmap? | UK News

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