Health

Coronavirus: Second wave fatalities set to exceed worst-case scenarios, Sage warns

The number of deaths caused by the coronavirus could exceed the expectations of the government’s worst-case scenario, and the minister said the second wave was so advanced that the blockade of short-circuit breakers could not stop it. It is said that.

A new document released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency or the Sage Commission states that the size of the virus across the UK could exceed the 85,000 deaths predicted by government modeling. It warns that it means.

At the Sage meeting on October 8, the Commission warned: “In the UK, the number of infections and hospitalizations exceeds the currently reasonable worst-case scenario (RWCS) planned level. Short-term projections show that deaths will be at the RWCS planned level within the next two weeks. It is estimated that well over 100 new deaths per day will occur within two weeks, even if rigorous new interventions are implemented immediately. ”

The reported daily death toll has already exceeded that level, with 280 deaths on Thursday.

Scientists had previously called on the government to implement a “circuit breaker” lockdown in September in an attempt to curb the spread of the virus.

However, members of Sage now warn that this will sufficiently reduce the rate of infection of the virus and prevent its spread, making it unlikely that more and more people will always be infected.

This scenario means that the lockdown is much more likely to have to be longer and deeper than the circuit breaker.

The government rejected the idea in September and instead took effect less than a week after the SAGE meeting on October 14, a regional approach with a different tier than Liverpool, which first entered the highest Tier 3 alert levels in pubs and bars. Was selected. No meals are provided.

Manchester entered Tier 3 on October 23, after a public forum was held between Mayor Andy Burnham and the Minister over the level of financial support.

Leaked report obtained by Independent On Friday, it became clear that the area was running out of regular intensive care units and that it might be necessary to open a makeshift intensive care unit starting next week.

Earlier this month, the SAGE report warned: “The incidence and prevalence across the UK continues to increase, and data show a clear increase in hospital and ICU admissions, especially in the north of the UK.”

He added: “In all scenarios, the epidemic is still expanding.

“Sage has previously advised on packages of non-pharmaceutical interventions. [lockdown-style measures] It should be adopted to reverse the exponential growth of the case. As before, it will be more effective if the previous additional measures are introduced. Long-term sustainable measures are also essential. ”

The situation has worsened and some sage members are complaining that the minister has not taken stricter steps.

Some members of Sage pointed out their predictions in February and March when the government was warned of a possible second wave of problems.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty warns that government Tier 3 measures are likely not sufficient to reduce the R infection rate to less than one.

As the virus spreads further and spreads in society, scientists believe that longer and deeper blockades will be needed to successfully reduce R rates. This should be aimed at not only lowering the R rate to less than 1 but also lowering it to avoid the plateau effect that cases of coronavirus do not rise or fall.

Coronavirus: Second wave fatalities set to exceed worst-case scenarios, Sage warns

Source link Coronavirus: Second wave fatalities set to exceed worst-case scenarios, Sage warns

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