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United Kingdom

Biggest interest rate hike in 25 years could result in a showdown at banks.degree of interest

A lightning strike from the Bank of England awaits.have delayed the decision Threadneedle Street could start its biggest borrowing cost hike in at least 25 years this week, until a nationwide period of mourning for the Queen is over.

announce the plan the day before Kwasi Kwarteng’s Mini Budget on Fridaydespite storm clouds gathering over the UK economy, the central bank is widely expected to show its commitment to using rapid and forceful rate hikes to tackle surging borrowing costs.

The city’s economist 0.5 point increase This is the most aggressive tightening cycle since at least 1997, when Prime Minister Gordon Brown first gave banks the independence to set borrowing costs as prime minister.

However, a tighter 0.75 point gain could unfold. Threadneedle Street will not remain sluggish under the influence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as it plans a sharp rate hike on Wednesday following last week’s numbers. you don’t want to showed a tougher picture of inflation in the world’s largest economy.

On this side of the pond Inflation may have fallen in August Up from 10.1% in July, it remains near 9.9%, its highest level since 1982, as prices for food and other basic necessities rise.

official figures showed Unemployment fell to lowest level since 1974job openings remain high, giving banks a sign of economic strength despite looming risks of a recession. is a key metric the bank monitors, even as workers continue to feel pinched as the economy accelerates at a faster rate.

Financial markets estimate an almost 90% chance that borrowing costs will increase by 0.75 percentage points.

“The scale of the energy shock is unmatched by anything we’ve seen before,” said Modupe Adegbembo, economist at AXA Investment Managers. there are,” he said. “Given the market’s pricing for a 75 basis point rise, its failure to materialize could add to the weakness of the pound.”

The pound fell to its lowest level in 40 years against the dollar this summer, reflecting investor fears over the UK’s deteriorating economic outlook. Like other major European currencies, the pound is under pressure from a strong dollar, as well as fears of very high inflation amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. .

But in the ugly competition of currency markets, the UK is particularly at risk.Investors Think Liz Truss Is Increasing Public Borrowing To Fund Her £150bn energy support package haven’t solved the problem. Nor are the threats made in the Conservative leadership campaign. undermining bank independence.

Details of the Truss support package will be announced in the next day’s mini-budget. Most economists hope that by putting more money in household pockets, it will help reduce inflation peaks and lessen the severity of a looming recession.

For banks, however, it could mean further rate hikes to wipe out inflationary spillovers from stimulating the consumer economy. Financial markets expect the benchmark interest rate to rise above 4.5% by next summer.

All of this causes major clashes between the government and bank governor Andrew Bailey, who has been in the truss crosshairs for some time with a review of central bank mandates scheduled for this fall.

Given the turmoil in financial markets about the Truss interfering in the Bank’s governance amid soaring public borrowing, Bailey is unlikely to be fired. But just as the truss tries to get the economy going at all costs, by hitting the brakes on higher interest rates, bank of england Almost guaranteed.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/18/biggest-interest-rate-rise-for-25-years-could-spell-showdown-at-the-bank Biggest interest rate hike in 25 years could result in a showdown at banks.degree of interest

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