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2021 Budget Forecast: Everything We Know So Far

Wednesday autumn budget Set against the backdrop of economic uncertainty, thanks to the persistent effects of the coronavirus Pandemic..

NS Ministry of Finance Trying to build a day of active coverage of the giveaway the day before Prime Minister, Rishi SunakGet to his feet with House of Commons..

This is a pledge of headlines so far in the sense of what this really means.

Public sector wages

what’s new? On Monday, the Treasury, as widely tracked, Thawing public sector wage freezes..

The justification used for the freeze was that private sector wages were vulnerable and weakened by employer nervousness due to Covid-19 restrictions. Now the economy is open and living expenses are rising sharply.Even in the private sector payment The argument of sticking to public sector wages has become very difficult to defend as growth struggles to keep up with inflation.

Still, it is not exactly clear what the settlement will look like and how it will be measured against rising inflation.

The price increase, measured by the CPI, could reach 5% early next year, according to the Bank of England’s Chief Economist.

Small print: But business minister Paul Scully avoided saying in an interview on Tuesday. Whether the salary increase matches the increase in living expenses..

He said in Sky News that it could be “anything” and that the exact numbers would be determined after a report from a paid review body in April next year. Therefore, the government does not rule out actual wage cuts. That is, when wages do not rise more than prices rise.

Conclusion: Substantial reductions in conditions can increase the risk of industrial behavior among public sector workers.

minimum wage

what’s new? The Prime Minister accepts recommendations from the Low Wage Commission Raise the national living wage For workers over the age of 23, from £ 8.91 in April next year to £ 9.50 per hour.

Small print: However, it is important to compare what is happening to the UK’s lowest-income earners and how they affect Universal Credit from a pre- and post-tax perspective.

Before tax, minimum-wage full-time workers will earn £ 1,074 more a year starting next April. However, “Taper” for Universal Credit peopleTherefore, for every £ 1 you earn above the profit threshold, the worker loses 63p.

If the effect is combined with a tax increase, especially the planned increase in national insurance premiums starting in April next year, the £ 1,074 increase will drop to around £ 260 a year after tax. (This assumes that the increase exceeds the income allowance of someone receiving Universal Credit.)

This is compared to worsening by around £ 1,000 a year if Universal Credit is received after the government abolished the £ 20 weekly rise during a pandemic.

According to government statistics, there are many universal credit recipients, about one in five, who cannot work. Therefore, they will not see their lots improved by raising the minimum wage.

Conclusion: This increase in the minimum wage means that there are fewer low-wage workers in the UK. This is part of the long-term trend when comparing hourly wages over time. However, this does not address concerns that the benefits are too low for those who are not working, who cannot work enough time, or who cannot work at all.The basic fee for benefits is The lowest level since 1990According to Torsten Bell, CEO of the Resolution Foundation think tank.

NHS funding

what’s new? The budget will allocate an additional £ 5.9 billion to the NHS. This is in addition to the £ 12 billion expected to be sourced from what will be Health and Social Care Levy.

This money will be used for physical infrastructure and other long-term spending such as new equipment. This means that it is a technical investment, not a so-called daily spending.

Small print: It is not used for short-term staff recruitment and other costs. This means that it does not fix the huge backlog of delayed care due to pandemics. Related to chronic staff shortage Throughout medical services, NHS trusts across the country report challenges in hiring professional workers.

Conclusion: In addition to the need for MRI and ultrasound equipment, we also need staff to operate them. Also, once the scan and test are complete, many surgeries then require intensive care. This is a challenge if there is a shortage of ICU specialist nurses or if there is too little space for Covid-19 patients.

shipping

what’s new? The government has replenished its transport commitments to increase funding for trams, trains, buses and bike paths.

Small print: In fact, there is only a small portion of this cash. New money..£ 7 billion before the prime ministerbudget The new transportation project pledge includes only £ 1.5 billion in additional funding.

Conclusion: It doesn’t look like HS2 is set to provide what it promises. Independent Revealed earlier this week The eastern section of the project is set to be reduced. Therefore, high-speed trains need to slow down to run on the old railroad tracks between Yorkshire and Midlands.

Other announcements:

  • Health survey: £ 5 billion for healthcare research such as genomic testing, cancer and obesity.
  • housing: £ 1.8bn to build a new home on the brownfield site
  • education: £ 2.6bn over 3 years for special needs and education for children with disabilities
  • Childcare: £ 500m for childcare projects including family hubs. Labor has criticized conservative spending cuts, similar to the SureStart Center, which was closed as a result of the closure, but not ambitious.



2021 Budget Forecast: Everything We Know So Far

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